Week 15 Results, First round of playoffs!!
Well, well, well….there we have it folks. Another TBO season in the books, another round of playoffs in our future!
A dominating regular season performance sees the team of Dan Kane-Jon Carroll-Paul Daniels-Brian Thayer as the #1 seed. DJ Mahar-Andrew Habererererererererern-Dean Mott-BobBobBobBobBob Moran land at the #2 seed. Both of those teams will see byes as a part of the playoffs.
The rest of us peasants will have to battle it out to see how faces who in the second round. A reminder that the #1 seed will face the lowest seed of the remaining teams with the #2 seed playing the remaining team.
#3 Devin-Bill John-Steve-Bill Kirkby vs. #6 Dickie-Lochner-Shanahan-Joey
This should be an interesting matchup.
Devin has played once since Week 11, yet still ranks as one of the best performing golfers. Dickie is the unluckiest golfer for the year (opponents +21 vs. quota), but has performed relatively well on his own (#12 best golfer). Could Devin have been away for too long and Dickie finally have luck turn his way and get the win?
One stat that sticks out in the Lochner-Bill John matchup is recent history. Similar to Devin, Bill John hasn’t played at all since Week 11. Prior to Bill’s absences, his performances were trending down big time. Contrast with Lochner’s recent past, who has been seeing his performances getting better. Will Lochner’s trends continue? Will Bill John be able to pick up his early season form after time away?
Steve-Shanahan looks like a tight match-up on paper (both significantly underperforming, both getting lucky, both experiences big wins/big losses), but there’s one thing that will likely be the difference. Steve is nearly 3-times as likely to get a birdie as Shanahan, but Shanahan gets far more pars. Steve also is 50% more likely than Shanahan at getting a double-par. This match will likely hinge on who gets a birdie.
Bill Kirkby and Joseph Donegan should also be fun to watch. This won’t be a close match as both golfers usually win big or get destroyed. Both are also underperforming, but their luck is significantly different. Joe is the #3 unluckiest golfer (opponents are +17) and Bill is the luckiest golfer (opponents are -25). Joe has one of the highest rates of double par and needs to avoid those like the plague but also strike when Bill gets no points on a hole. Bill has one of the highest rates of not scoring on a hole at 59%. If Bill can avoid those zero point holes, he likely walks away with it.
#4 IT Nerd (Mike C)-El Commish (Chris D)-John Mooney-Mike Boo-urns vs. #5 Connor “doo-doo” Brown-Dan Mahar-Dan Keeley-Bobby Zaleski
Another good set of matchups!
The IT Nerd will be fresh off a 2 week vacation while Connor has continued to steam roll his opponents. IT Nerd has had a middle of the road year (middle of the pack on lucky/unlucky, player over/under performance) while Connor is far and away the #1 golfer (+36 vs. his quotas) and is the #2 luckiest golfer (opponents are -22 vs. quota). Connor won’t beat himself: He gets par or better 70% of the time. The question is on the IT Nerd to turn his highest bogey % in Flight 1 into pars or better.
The Chris-Dan Mahar match will likely be a close one. A lot of similarities to their seasons, but recent performances favor El Commish. Dan’s season has been relatively consistent (albeit not good), but Chris had a very bad start to the season but improved significantly lately. The key here will be if El Commish can avoid double pars.
This Flight 3 match-up here is another one where it depends on which version of Dan Keeley shows up. Very similar numbers between Keeley and Mooney in terms of luck, performance. However, Mooney avoids the severe lows that Keeley experiences. Mooney has some of the best Bogey numbers and lowest zero point holes in Flight 3 while Dan’s are the opposite (worst bogey numbers and highest zero point holes). If “good” Dan Keeley shows up, Mooney could still weather the storm. Just depends how much “bad” Dan Keeley shows up.
With Bob Zaleski getting his sole win in the final week, he avoids the second ever zero win season. Bob Moran went 0-8-3 in 2016 for the only winless season in TBO history. He joins Joe Donegan from 2009 (1-13-3), Bob Moran from 2024 (1-4-3) and Dale Russell from 2025 (1-4-1) as the only golfers to record one win in a season. While Bob was the worst performing golfer in the league (-23 vs. quota), he was also the #2 unluckiest golfer (+19 vs. quota). With Bob’s quota so low, it just takes one good hole to swing the match. If Bob can avoid the zero point and double par holes, the 7-point quota gap might be too much for Burns to overcome without a birdie.
Here’s our Playoff matchups:
Week 16 Devin Carrigan 17 VS 13 Dick Donegan Bill John 10 VS 11 Matt Lochner Steve Donegan 10 VS 10 Mike Shanahan Bill Kirkby 7 VS 8 Joe Donegan Connor Brown 17 VS 13 Mike Carroll Dan Mahar 10 VS 13 Chris Donegan Dan Keeley 11 VS 11 John Mooney Bob Zaleski 3 VS 10 Mike Burns
Curt Smith 8 7 4 7 5 5 4 6 3 6 47.0 -1.0 Chris Donegan 13 5 4 6 5 5 4 5 3 5 42.0 -1.0 Gary Thompson 8 6 4 8 6 5 5 4 4 6 48.0 -1.0 Devin Carrigan 17 5 4 6 3 4 3 4 4 5 38.0 0.0 Gary Thompson 8 6 4 8 7 5 5 4 4 6 49.0 -1.0 Matt Lochner 11 5 4 7 5 5 4 5 3 6 44.0 -1.0 Jon Carroll 12 5 4 6 5 6 4 5 4 6 45.0 -3.0 Andrew Haberern 12 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 46.0 -4.0 Jim Morgan 10 8 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 52.0 -7.0 Craig Hawkinson 12 4 4 5 4 4 3 5 3 4 36.0 7.0 Merritt Daniels 14 5 5 6 4 5 3 4 4 4 40.0 0.0 Denny Welch 12 0.0 0.0 Marty Donegan 8 7 4 7 5 4 4 5 3 6 45.0 1.0 Drew Prucha 9 5 4 7 5 4 5 5 4 5 44.0 1.0 Pat Donahue 10 5 5 6 6 4 3 4 4 6 43.0 1.0 Rick Fanto 12 4 3 6 4 3 3 4 3 6 36.0 9.0 Mike Burns 9 5 6 7 4 4 4 5 4 7 46.0 0.0 Bill Kirkby 6 6 4 7 5 5 5 3 6 4 45.0 4.0 John Mooney 11 5 4 6 4 6 3 5 5 6 44.0 -1.0 Steve Donegan 10 7 4 7 6 5 5 4 4 7 49.0 -4.0 Dan Kane 15 5 4 8 3 4 4 4 3 4 39.0 2.0 DJ Mahar 13 5 4 7 3 4 5 4 5 4 41.0 1.0 Paul Daniels 8 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 5 41.0 6.0 Sean Mott 11 6 4 8 5 4 5 6 4 7 49.0 -4.0 Brian Thayer 7 7 4 7 5 4 4 5 3 7 46.0 2.0 Dave Hook 7 7 5 8 6 5 3 5 3 7 49.0 0.0 Connor Brown 17 7 3 5 5 3 4 3 4 4 38.0 2.0 Dick Donegan 14 5 6 7 6 4 4 4 3 4 43.0 -3.0 Bob Zaleski 2 10 6 7 5 4 5 5 5 7 54.0 1.0 Joe Donegan 9 6 5 8 4 5 6 7 3 6 43.0 -3.0 Dan Keeley 12 5 4 6 4 5 4 6 4 6 44.0 -2.0 Mike Shanahan 10 5 5 5 5 6 4 6 4 5 45.0 -1.0
Team Player Quota Perf Pts Total Sub? 1 Dick Donegan -3 0 3 1 Matt Lochner -1 1 1 Mike Shanahan -1 2 1 Joe Donegan -3 0 2 Rick Fanto 9 2 7 2 Denny Welch 0 0 2 Drew Prucha 1 1 2 Craig Hawkinson 7 2 3 Dan Kane 2 2 10 3 Jon Carroll -3 2 3 Paul Daniels 6 2 3 Brian Thayer 2 2 4 Connor Brown 2 2 6 4 Gary Thompson -1 0 X 4 Dan Keeley -2 0 4 Bob Zaleski 1 2 5 DJ Mahar 1 0 0 5 Andrew Haberern -4 0 5 Sean Mott -4 0 5 Dave Hook 0 0 X 6 Pat Donahue 1 0 3 6 Merritt Daniels 0 2 6 Marty Donegan 1 1 6 Jim Morgan -7 0 7 Gary Thompson -1 0 3 X 7 Chris Donegan -1 1 7 John Mooney -1 2 7 Mike Burns 0 0 8 Devin Carrigan 0 2 7 8 Curt Smith -1 1 X 8 Steve Donegan -4 0 8 Bill Kirkby 4 2
